Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (7)
[ professional classification ] finance and finance [ Article ID ] 15-2009-0082
IV, comprehensive analysis
First, comprehensive analysis
Under the rapid growth of civil aviation transportation, the growth of the three major operational indicators of domestic large airports in the first nine months of 2007 has stabilized, and the performance of each airport is mixed.
In terms of passenger throughput, the major airports were very different. The growth of Pudong Airport, Hongqiao Airport and Shenzhen Airport in the first three quarters was on the rise. The growth rate of the Capital Airport in the third quarter declined, mainly due to the regulatory policies issued by the Civil Aviation Administration in August. Among them, Baiyun Airport and Xiamen Airport have outstanding performance. The average growth rate of Baiyun Airport in the first three quarters reached 17.22%, and Xiamen Airport was 16.75%, which is higher than other airports. These two airports are airports with abundant capacity utilization, Baiyun. The airport showed high growth after the transition period of the new airport.
In terms of cargo and mail throughput, Pudong Airport and Capital Airport are still in a leading position. They maintained rapid growth in the first three quarters. The cargo throughput of other airports in the third quarter declined, and the growth was flat.
In terms of aircraft movements, except for Pudong Airport, the major airports experienced a significant decline in the number of landings in the third quarter, with the Capital Airport falling the most. The main reason was that the Civil Aviation Administration of China introduced the total number of flights regulated by the Civil Aviation Administration in August. (Notice of Air Transport Market Access and Capacity Growth) ( Document 101) restricts the number of daily landings at major airports, and controls the capital airport that is overloaded. Although the growth rate of Baiyun Airport and Xiamen Airport decreased in the third quarter, it was still significantly higher than the other four major airports.
In general, under the rapid growth of civil aviation traffic, the major airports have been close to or already saturated due to capacity utilization. The airlines have transferred some of their new capacity to airports with relatively low capacity utilization rates, resulting in slower growth. Among them, Baiyun Airport and Xiamen Airport have a relatively rapid growth rate due to their relatively large spare capacity.
Passenger throughput of major airports in the first three quarters of 2007 (10,000 people)
Source: China Trade Logistics Network
Freight throughput of major airports in the first three quarters of 2007 (tonnes)
Source: China Trade Logistics Network
Aircraft landings and landings at major airports in the first three quarters of 2007 (rack)
Source: China Trade Logistics Network
From the financial data of listed companies, Baiyun Airport and Xiamen Airport have the fastest growth rate. In the first three quarters of Baiyun Airport, the average growth rate of main business revenue was 7.40%, while EPS increased by 38.85%. The average growth rate of main business revenue of Xiamen Airport in the first three quarters was 20.55%, while EPS increased by 41.28. %. The growth rate of Shanghai Airport and Shenzhen Airport has tended to be flat.
Second, comprehensive evaluation
1. The growth of domestic hub airports slowed down before 2007
Benefiting from the rapid growth of the civil aviation industry, the airport industry has also experienced a period of rapid development. From 1996 to 2006, the average growth rate of passenger throughput was 20.45%, the average growth rate of cargo and mail throughput was 22.88%, and the average growth rate of aircraft movements was 20.09%. According to the 2006 data, passenger throughput The volume increased by 16.75% year-on-year, the cargo and mail throughput increased by 18.79%, and the aircraft movements increased by 14.06%. According to ACI's 2006 ranking, the passenger throughput of Capital Airport is ranked 9th in the world, with a growth rate of 18.7%. The cargo throughput of Shanghai Airport (Pudong Airport) is ranked 6th in the world, with a growth rate of 16.8%. The airport industry shared the fruits of high growth in civil aviation.
Among them, the four hub airports experienced a period of rapid growth in 2000-2004, and their traffic growth was significantly higher than the national average, but in 2005 and 2006, the situation reversed. Especially in 2006, the growth rate of the three major indicators was significantly lower than the overall level of the national airport.
For the reason that hub airport traffic growth has been lower than the national average in the past two years, the market's general explanation is the competition between high base and surrounding airports. We believe that the real reason is that hub airport capacity utilization has reached saturation, which restricts the growth of aviation business traffic. This time, the government is implementing flow control on the hub airport. One aspect is to alleviate the pressure on the airport facilities.
According to the preliminary calculation data released by the Civil Aviation Administration of China in 2007, the facilities capacity of 60 airports nationwide is saturated or about to reach saturation. Some of the facilities at 13 airports are already in overload operation, and 36 airports will reach 2010. Saturated, 11 airports will reach saturation in 2015, and the airport's existing operational resources will become increasingly tight, especially at hub airports. Beijing Capital International Airport, the actual average daily flight volume in the first half of 2007 has exceeded the original limit of 1,100 flights per day. Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, in the first half of 2007, the average daily average flight calculated saturation reached 99%, while the Shanghai Pudong Airport and Guangzhou Baiyun Airport saturation were also above 90%. Taking the data of 2006 as an example, the runway utilization rate, daily take-off and landing and passenger throughput of domestic hub airports have reached or exceeded their highest level.
2. After 2007, the hub airport returned to the high growth track.
Due to the overload operation of the airport and the increase in control supply by the Civil Aviation Administration, some of the potential aviation demand will be restrained, which will have a certain negative impact on the airport industry. This is especially true for regulated domestic hub airports. Due to the severe restrictions on the growth of Beijing-Shanghai Sui-Shen Airport traffic, airlines may transfer some of their new capacity to airports with relatively low capacity utilization to meet the increasing aviation demand in the corresponding hinterland. In fact, this transfer effect has been reflected in the past year: while the traffic growth at Shenzhen Airport and Shanghai Airport is relatively slow, the traffic growth of Hangzhou and Nanjing airports in Baiyun Airport and the Yangtze River Delta exceeds the national average.
At present, various domestic hub airports are stepping up infrastructure construction and investment. The new capacity of Capital Airport and Pudong Airport will be put into use in early 2008. The expansion of the airport will lift the bottleneck of airport resources, and the hub airport will be repressed in 2005-2007. Growth will be greatly released. At the same time, the time for airport flow control will be at the end of March 2008. We expect that after the second quarter of next year, with the advent of the Olympic Games, there will be a rapid growth inflection point at the hub airport.
3. Asset injection and non-aeronautical business will become the future highlights of the airport industry
The injection of high-quality assets leaves an imaginary space for the future rise of the airport's stock price. Like many other listed companies in China, the main domestic airports are also split and listed, that is, some of the airport business is divested. The assets of the parent company stayed at the airport mainly include four categories: one is construction in progress, such as the third phase of the Capital Airport; the other is the flight zone, the main reason is that the landing fee is lower at the time of listing, which is not enough to make up for the cost of the flight zone; Part of the non-aviation business; Fourth, other assets, such as Shanghai Airport, through the asset replacement to set off Hongqiao Airport.
At present, the drawbacks of split listing are increasingly obvious: First, there are problems of disparity in income and assets, and excessive related transactions in the split listing, which does not meet the requirements for regulating the governance of listed companies and reducing related party transactions. Second, under the conditions of split listing, the airport cannot be commercialized as a whole, so as to maximize its effectiveness.
At present, Shenzhen Airport has issued additional assets for the acquisition of the group company in February 2007. Baiyun Airport also obtained the conditions for the acquisition of the assets of the group company in November 2007. Capital Airport also drafted a plan to acquire the assets of the third phase of the Capital Airport owned by the parent company in July 2007. Shanghai Airport's overall listing plan is getting closer and closer. Xiamen Airport also has the possibility of asset injection, but the time is relatively uncertain. In theory, the relevant aviation assets owned by the groups listed above may be injected into the listed company.
After the injection of assets, the quality of the injected assets is relatively good, and the EPS of listed companies is increased to varying degrees. According to the simulation calculations we have made, it is assumed that Shanghai Airport will acquire the assets of the group company by way of additional issuance, which will increase the EPS of listed companies. Thickness of 0.35-0.5 yuan, leaving room for imagination in the future stock price; in the long run, the injection of assets such as flight zone assets, terminal assets, logistics parks and other assets will enable airport listed companies to own and operate airports in a complete sense, which is beneficial to Optimize the value chain process of core business and non-aviation business, reduce related party transactions, and provide strong support for the company to become bigger and stronger.
4. Non-aeronautical business will become the direction of airport development
As a quasi-public welfare industry, coupled with the construction of the airport, it is subject to the unified planning of the government, the barriers to entry are high, and the airport has the characteristics of regional monopoly. At the beginning, the passenger and cargo flow increase, and the level of charges is uniformly regulated by the state without fear of excessive competition. As a result of the price war, the airport can achieve profitable growth by simply relying on â€œmanagementâ€ and does not require a high level of management. In this model, the key to airport profitability is the increase in traffic and capacity expansion, while the management level is relatively minor.
According to the historical experience of large-scale hub airports abroad, when the traffic volume of the hub airport rises to a certain extent, due to its large throughput base, the traffic flow growth rate will gradually decrease, and the airport scale will gradually become saturated, which will transition to A steady growth phase. At this time, the importance of the company's management level for the increase of airport profitability has increased greatly. For example, cost control, non-aviation business development, especially commercial retail business, has become the main driving force for the continued growth of income and profit.
Moreover, the airport charging reform implemented in early 2007: On the one hand, in the new airport charging reform program, the airport charges the cost of airlines. This principle essentially limits the room for the airport to increase the price of airline charges. On the other hand, under the negotiation mechanism, airports and airlines are no longer passive price recipients, but become price makers in a certain sense. However, in order to prevent the airport from abusing its monopoly position, the airportâ€™s charges for airlines are not allowed to rise in principle, and the extent of the downward movement is not limited.
The above two principles actually limit the space for the airport to use the monopoly position to raise the charging standard. Under the background of commercialization and market reform of the airport, vigorously developing non-aviation services has become an inevitable choice for the airport to improve its profitability.
Third, predictive analysis
1. Guangzhou Airport
In 2006, the financial expenses of Baiyun Airport reached 153 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.34%. The main reason is that after June 2005, in order to supplement the working capital and pay for the new airport terminal, the bank loan will increase. According to estimates, the company's interest-bearing liabilities at the end of 2004, 2005 and 2006 were 0, 29.28 and 2.263 billion yuan respectively. Based on our forecast of the company's major capital expenditures in the future (the acquisition of two runways in 2007, the completion of the 2007 or 2009 neutral cargo station and the new corridor, the third runway in 10 years) and the cash flow from operating activities, we forecast At the end of 2007-2010, the company's interest-bearing liabilities were 20.75, 17.02, 25.52 and 2.202 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding financial expenses for 2007-2010 were 1.2, 1.05, 1.31 and 0.72 billion respectively. For other major financial data forecasts, see The following table.
|project||2007||Year 2008||Year 2009||year 2010||year 2011||2012||year 2013||Year 2014|
|Main business income||2,879||3,376||3,776||4,386||4,586||4,936||5,284||5,655|
|Cash flow statement|
|Free cash flow FCF||-1451||949||-332||1545||2256||2394||2611||2817|
|Operating cash flow||1341||1100||1360||1540||1646||1814||2041||2239|
|Investment cash flow||-1629||-599||-2154||-582||-36||-68||-40||-57|
|Financing cash flow||-455||-572||916||-704||-1869||-1449||-594||-621|
|Net increase in cash flow||-743||-71||120||254||-259||296||1407||1560|
Note: 1. Unit: million yuan; 2. Table 2007-2014 data is forecast data
2. Shanghai Airport
Shanghai Airport is expected to increase its commercial rental income after the second terminal is put into use in 2008. Considering the growth of aviation business, the commercial rental income has increased. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2007 will be 0.87 yuan and 0.95 respectively. Yuan, 1.14 yuan. Based on the above analysis, the financial data is predicted.
(1) Forecast of income statement
(2) Balance sheet
(3) Cash flow statement forecast
3. Xiamen Airport
At present, the construction of the economic zone on the west coast of Fujian Province and the new round of leap-forward development in Xiamen have entered a stage of substantial progress. The regional economic aggregate has increased rapidly, and the scope of radiation and influence has gradually increased. The company continues to face a macroeconomic situation with high growth and good performance. Regional and industry development environment. It is estimated that the growth rate of passenger throughput in 2007-10 years is 13%, 15%, 10%, and 15%, respectively. The growth rate of take-off and landing movements is 12.9%, 15%, 10%, and 11.55%, respectively. It is 20%, 20%, 15%, 10%.
4. Shenzhen Airport
Shenzhen Airport has excellent management capabilities, but due to objective factors, the company's business and performance growth will be limited before the second runway is put into operation in 2010. It is estimated that the EPS will be 0.34 yuan, 0.38 yuan and 0.42 yuan respectively in 2007-09. Cautiously recommend investment rating, the company's asset injection is conducive to industrial integration and reduce related party transactions, but the effect of thickening according to the established issuance plan is not significant. It is assumed that asset injection will be implemented at the beginning of 2008, and the expected performance is only about 3%. The market expectation is relatively sufficient, and the company's stock price catalyst should come from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong airport management level and even the capital level deepening cooperation.
Fourth, the value assessment
By comparing the static P/E ratio and P/B ratio of listed companies in major domestic airports with the same indicator value evaluation of listed companies in the world's major airports.
Valuation of global airport listed companies
|name||Place of listing||05Est P/E||06Est P/E||07Est P/E||P/B ratio|
|capital Airport||Hong Kong||14.46||12.99||11.04||1.60|
|Meilan Airport||Hong Kong||10.60||10.66||9.06||1.25|
|Singapore Changi Airport||Singapore||10.05||9.27||7.88||1.96|
|Thailand Airport Group||Bangkok||11.03||12.00||10.20||1.22|
|British Airport Group||London||14.43||13.38||11.37||1.24|
|Auckland Airport||new Zealand||21.33||20.00||17.00||5.13|
1. Baiyun Airport
In 2007, Baiyun Airport's aviation business growth accelerated, mainly due to the new management's active pursuit of airlines to open new routes to Guangzhou, especially international routes. This year, Baiyun Airport has added 12 international routes, and attracting foreign airlines in the future is still the focus. At present, many foreign airlines, including United Airlines and Qatar Airways, have the willingness to open up the Guangzhou route. It is expected to be implemented in 2008. In addition, after China Southern Airlines joined SkyTeam in November, Air China and Shanghai Airlines announced their participation in the Star Alliance in December. The positive competition between the world's two major aviation alliances in the Chinese market began. We believe that China Southern Airlines, based in Baiyun Airport, is bound to strengthen the capacity of the Guangzhou market and increase cooperation with SkyTeam members. This is not only in line with the common interests of China Southern Airlines and SkyTeam, but also for the long-term transit passenger flow. Less Baiyun Airport brings huge room for development.
In November, the re-tendering of 120 shops in the airport within 12,000 square meters was completed. After raising the rent standard, it is estimated that more than 50 million rental income will be added in 2008. Through the adjustment of the commercial layout in the airport, the company will increase the commercial space of about 2,000 square meters in 2008, and the commercial area in the terminal will reach about 19,000 square meters. In addition, the expansion project of the East Three West Three Fingers Gallery will also be completed in 2008, and the indoor area is expected to increase by another 1/4.
Advertising business revenue still has room for improvement in the future. From January to June 2007, the net profit of the holding advertising company reached 29.77 million yuan (previous year: 34.406 million yuan), mainly due to the increase in the indoor advertising position. At present, Baiyun Airport has applied to the government for the qualifications of outdoor building advertising and outdoor column advertising business, and it is expected that it will be approved.
In addition to non-aeronautical services such as leasing and advertising, the growth of air cargo business is also worth looking forward to. At present, the company's share in the Baiyun Airport freight market is about 80-90% (including freight forwarding business), and the others are owned by China Southern Airlines. The company has represented all the cargo and mail services of foreign airlines at Baiyun Airport. The sustained high-speed growth of foreign cargo cargo and mail throughput will support the growth of the company's cargo terminal business. We believe that the company's current simple cargo terminal operations are relatively extensive, and it was not easy to handle 653,000 cargoes and mails last year. Therefore, after the neutral cargo station was put into use in the first half of 2008, it will not lead to a large excess of supply capacity.
The old Baiyun Airport 80,000 square meters terminal area can accommodate 16 million passengers, and the new airport 400,000 square meters should be able to cope with around 50 million passengers. Therefore, there is no need for the expansion of Baiyun Airport before 2010. However, we believe that if the local government asks for expansion due to image considerations, the company is also hard to resist. In addition, the company's 2010 capital expenditure projects include: 1) Neutral cargo station: completed in 2008, with a total investment of 550 million; 2) Dongsan and West Sanjiao Gallery (including apron): completed in 2008, total Investment of 1.4 billion (400 million aprons); 3) North taxiway system and supporting facilities project and Dongsi West Sizhijiao station project: completed in 2009-2010, total project investment of 260 million; 4) acquisition of parent company runway assets : At the end of 2007, 2.03 billion. Overall, capital expenditure pressures are small in the next three years. Despite this, we believe that from the perspective of the growth of Baiyun Airport's business volume and the construction period of the airport expansion project, it may be time to consider the expansion of the terminal building around 2010.
Baiyun Airport does not have obvious bottlenecks in throughput capacity in the next three years, and airspace restrictions are not the main problem. This is in contrast to the tight airspace resources and inadequate infrastructure of major airports in China. With the capacity of Shenzhen Airport saturated and the introduction of FedEx in 2008, under the leadership of the new management, the company should be able to grasp the precious time and opportunity to grow and develop by 2010.
Based on the above analysis, the development prospects of Baiyun Airport in the next three years are very worthy of expectation. As a combination of defensive and high growth, it can be used as a choice for mid-line configuration.
2. Shanghai Airport
In 2007, due to the following factors, the passenger throughput growth rate of Pudong Airport declined. First, the capacity of Pudong Airport was limited. Second, the airspace was tight. 3. The saturation of the Capital Airport. In 2008, the second terminal of Pudong Airport. The building and the third runway can be officially put into use. The Capital Airport T2 terminal will also be put into operation on February 29, 2008. The substantial increase in design throughput will guarantee the substantial increase in throughput of Pudong Airport in 2008. At the same time as the throughput capacity is improved, the airspace tension is also being coordinated. With the promotion of the Olympic factors, it is expected that the throughput and movement of Shanghai Pudong Airport will increase in 2008.
At 20% or more, the annual growth rate of international passenger throughput is above 25%.
3. Xiamen Airport
Compared with the three major aviation hubs in China, Xiamen's hinterland economy is weak, and the company is also positioned as a regional aviation hub. Relative to its own hinterland economy and positioning weakness, the company has been actively pursuing aggressive airport marketing and refined management strategies through the transformation of concepts and the improvement of management measures. The company is committed to building good partnerships with airlines to secure customers and develop markets by providing flexible, quality and competitive services. Since 1996, Xiamen Airport has won the first place in the â€œVehicles of Civil Aviationâ€ and the highest award in the Civil Aviation Service of the Civil Aviation Association, â€œCustomer Satisfaction Quality Service Gold Awardâ€, and its passenger throughput, take-off and landing, and cargo and mail throughput. Has been maintained in the top ten in the country. In terms of route marketing, we dig deep into the hinterland resources and open up new marketing situations through further route network expansion and multimodal transport.
At present, the number of aircraft movements at Xiamen Airport has reached 1/2 of the design capacity, and the passenger and cargo throughput has reached 2/3 of the design capacity. The capital expenditure in the next two years is not large (in 2007, about 70 million yuan will be invested in the renovation of the terminal building. Improve passenger throughput to 13 million passengers and ensure service capacity before 2010). It is expected that the new airport terminal will start construction in 2009 and will be put into use after 2010, which will have little impact on the performance before 2010. The financial indicators of Xiamen Airport indicate that the scale benefits of Xiamen Airport have emerged and have entered the best benefit period. The connotative growth in 2007-2010 will enhance the performance growth and profitability of Xiamen Airport.
4. Shenzhen Airport
The rapid economic and social development of Shenzhen has contributed to the sustained high-speed growth of passenger throughput in Shenzhen Airport. In just four years, Shenzhen Airport has achieved a leap from 10 million to 20 million passengers. As the second runway of the airport and the new terminal will be completed and put into use around 2011. Therefore, after experiencing sustained and rapid growth in throughput, Shenzhen Airport will face a new situation of â€œtight constraintsâ€ on resources such as runways, terminal buildings and airspace in the next few years.
In the face of â€œstrong constraintsâ€ on resources and rising bases, Shenzhen Airport has transitioned from high growth during the â€œTenth Five-Year Planâ€ period to steady growth during the â€œEleventh Five-Year Planâ€ period. The growth rate of the three major operational indicators has been put on since 2006. slow. We expect Shenzhen Airport's passenger throughput and cargo and mail throughput growth rate to slow down to 11-12% in 2007, and aircraft movements will increase by 7%-8%. From 2008 to 2010, the annual average growth rate of passenger throughput and aircraft movements of Shenzhen Airport is expected to be single digits to 5-6%. According to the Shenzhen Airport Development Plan, by 2010, Shenzhen Airport will achieve a passenger throughput of 24 million passengers.
According to the development plan, by 2010, Shenzhen Airport will strive to enter the global top 30 freight forwarding, cargo and mail throughput reached 1 million tons; by 2015, Shenzhen Airport will develop into a South China freight gateway airport, cargo and mail throughput reached 1.9 million tons . According to the cargo and mail throughput of Shenzhen Airport in 559,400 tons in 2006, the annual compound growth of cargo and mail throughput of Shenzhen Airport will reach 15.6% in 2007-2010, which will be about twice the growth rate of passenger transportation business in the same period.
On the whole, although Shenzhen Airport faces â€œhard constraintsâ€ on resources in the short term, its service and management of other domestic airports will continue to enhance its brand value. The value of â€œmonopoly resourcesâ€ of the airport will be fully tapped and eventually transformed into airports. Profits from non-aviation businesses such as commerce and advertising. In addition, the company's successful experience in airport business and advertising operations is expected to be replicated after the completion of the airport expansion project around 2011, and the establishment of airport brands in the next few years will indirectly help the successful transplantation of existing business models, thereby enhancing Shenzhen Airport. Long-term investment value.
In summary, with the rapid development of business activities, tourism activities, visiting relatives and friends, the growth of passenger demand for civil aviation (especially tourist passenger transport) has risen sharply, reflecting that China has entered an era of consumption upgrading. The income and performance of airport-listed companies will grow rapidly. In particular, China's airport-listed companies are mainly four large international and domestic hub airports. Therefore, the long-term demand growth potential of civil aviation is huge.
Statistics show that China's airport density is only 1.4 airports per 100,000 square kilometers, and Japan's density is 23.3. Even in the eastern part of China's most concentrated airport, there are only 4.8 per 100,000 square kilometers, while Xinjiang and the northwest are only 0.6 and 0.8 per 100,000 square kilometers. It can be seen that the overall development prospects of the airport industry are worthy of optimism. In the context of the development of air transport, we must also clearly understand that in 137 airports in China, the operating conditions are clearly polarized. The airport business volume of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou accounts for 38% of the country's total, and almost divides the civil aviation into 40% of the sky. Such a big background suggests that the preferred investment for this sector in the securities market should be Shanghai Airport and Baiyun Airport, which belong to the three major hub airports.
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Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (1)
Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (2)
Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (3)
Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (4)
Xu Xiangdong "Research on Financial Data of China's Listed Airports" (5)
Xu Xiangdong, â€œResearch on Financial Data of China's Listed Airportsâ€ (6)