[May Point Network] The development of China's tourism for 30 years is basically driven by national policies. From the aspects of growth mode, development form and development speed, it has outstanding characteristics. In the drum...
[May Point Network] The development of China's tourism for 30 years is basically driven by national policies. From the aspects of growth mode, development form and development speed, it has outstanding characteristics. In the strategy of encouraging local development, most of the industry administrative departments use international experience data. For example, national income of 1,000 US dollars is an indicator of domestic tourism, and 2000 US dollars is an indicator of outbound tourism. In fact, China's own actual situation, we lack certain data support, this aspect is in scientific research, we focus on qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis is insufficient; on the other hand, the development of tourism industry has not accumulated a large amount of data. Today, after 30 years of tourism development, we can analyze the four basic data that we already have.
First, the data
Data A of tourism industry income from 1993 to 2008 were collected, including domestic tourism income and inbound income from 1980 to 2008, national GDP data D, national inbound overseas customer data B, national direct use foreign capital data E, and international inbound tourism spending data. C.
Second, the analysis method
The data is regressed by the ordinary least squares method. The data names are as defined above, and LA and so on represent the logarithm of the data, so the coefficients in the equation can be interpreted as elasticity. The estimated range for the equation containing LA is 1993-2009, and the rest is 1980-2008.
Third, the hope of the conclusion
1. The increase or decrease of 1% in tourism industry A, the change in D (GDP): the role of tourism in the national economy's GDP;
2. Changes in the number of inbound tourists B increased or decreased by 1%, the changes in the use of foreign capital E: the role of inbound guests in foreign capital;
3. Changes in international entry costs C increase or decrease by 1%, changes in the use of foreign capital E: the role of international spending on foreign investment;
4. International spending C increases and decreases by 1%, GDP (D) changes: the role of international spending on the national economy.
Fourth, the results
LD = 4.306275052 + 0.8708207112*LA
LE = -8.147898904 + 1.608941796*LB
LE = -3.989077953 + 1.064087951*LC
LD = 2.104865633 + 0.9777186952*LC
This result tells us
1. The tourism industry grew by 1%, and the growth rate of GDP was 0.87%, indicating that the growth rate of tourism is higher than that of the national economy;
2. The number of inbound guests increased by 1%, and the direct use of foreign capital increased by 1.6%, indicating that the inbound guests have greatly promoted the use of foreign capital in various places;
3. Inbound spending increased by 1%, and the use of foreign capital increased by 1.06%, indicating that international spending has a positive effect on the use of foreign capital;
4. Inbound spending increased by 1% and GDP increased by 0.977%, indicating that the increase in inbound spending was higher than GDP growth.
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